Will Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s New Collab Bring Them ‘Back’ to No. 1?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 3, we look at a number of songs threatening to end the now-nine-week reign of Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “Luther” — led by two of pop’s biggest hitmakers looking to score their second smash together. 

Morgan Wallen feat. Post Malone, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): Last year, Morgan Wallen helped officially introduce Post Malone to the country world with the duo’s teamup “I Had Some Help,” which topped the Hot 100 for six weeks and earned official Billboard Song of the Summer honors. That song, officially credited to Malone featuring Wallen, led the former’s full-length country pivot F-1 Trillion and helped turn that album into a chart-topper itself – so you know that now Wallen is returning with his own 37-track I’m the Problem set this May, Malone had to come return the favor.  

“I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” the duo’s credit-flipped new collaboration dropped on Friday (April 18) and also got off to a fast start on streaming and in sales. The song debuted atop the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, and quickly rose on the Apple Music and iTunes real-time charts as well. However, unlike “Help” — which absolutely blew past the competition in its first week of release, even during a particularly packed time for popular music — “Back” has already started to recede a little, down to No. 4 on Spotify and out of the top five on iTunes.  

It seems unlikely the duo will make it two straight No. 1 debuts with “Back” — but they should be primed for another long Hot 100 run with the song, helped by a quick embrace by radio, where the song has already earned 2.2 million in all-format airplay audience in its first four days, according to Luminate, and could be looking at a top 40 debut on the Country Airplay chart, despite no official promotion to the format. It will join a listing already packed with Wallen hits, including fellow I’m the Problem advance tracks like the title track (No. 10 this week), “Just in Case” (Wallen’s latest country radio single, No. 11) and “Love Somebody” (No. 20), and still – now in its 49th week on the chart — “I Had Some Help” (No. 17).  

Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): During a largely static time on the Hot 100, one of the few songs providing consistent week-to-week movement has been Warren’s “Ordinary,” which first gained momentum on TikTok, and then exploded after he performed it on a reunion episode for season eight of Netflix’s hit reality show Love Is Blind. Last week, the song became Warren’s first career top 10 hit; this week, it becomes his first career top five hit, jumping 7-5 on the chart dated Apr. 26.  

Could a No. 1 ranking be in the song’s future? Probably not in the next week or two, as the gap between it and Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s reigning “Luther” (nine weeks and counting) remains pretty large, but the song doesn’t seem to be slowing down, as it’s climbed all the way to No. 3 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and No. 7 on the Apple Music real-time chart. More crucially, it’s only really getting started at radio – debuting at No. 49 on Radio Songs this week and likely moving into the top 20 next week on Pop Airplay, still with plenty of room to grow there – making Warren a pretty solid candidate to be the first artist to score his first career No. 1 on the Hot 100 this year. 

BigXthaPlug feat. Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way” (BigXthaPlug/Atlantic/ UnitedMasters): BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman have been enjoying the biggest breakout hit of their respective careers the past two weeks with “All the Way,” which launched an impressive No. 4 debut on the Hot 100 two weeks ago and slipped just to No. 8 in its second week, and remains a strong presence on streaming. Despite debuting atop Billboard’s Hot Country Songs ranking, the single has not yet been promoted to country radio – but it has picked up a bit of top 40 airplay, with SiriusXM stations across pop and hip-hop formats also supporting the song.  

Drake, “Nokia” (Santa Anna/OVO/Republic): Drake’s much-needed bounceback hit made it all the way to No. 2 on the Hot 100, but has since stalled, dropping back to No. 3 on the chart. “Nokia” isn’t done yet, though – it’s still only really finding its footing on radio, where it reaches the R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay top 10 this week and is up 15% in all-format radio audience April 18-21. The song might still need one more big boost to get it over the top on the Hot 100 – an official remix, perhaps? — but it likely will remain in range of getting there for some weeks still to come.