Will Mariah Carey’s Historic Christmas Reign Resume Next Week on the Hot 100?

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Dec. 13, we look at the chances of Mariah Carey to claim her record-tying 19th week at No. 1 with her holiday perennial. 

Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia): “Christmas” came early to the Hot 100’s top 10 last month, with Carey’s holiday staple setting a record for its earliest visit in the calendar to the chart dated Nov. 15. In the weeks since, “Christmas” has continued to bound up the Hot 100, and ranks at No. 5 on this week’s chart (dated Dec. 6), the highest of the four holiday titles now ranking in the top 10.  

The song will undoubtedly jump on next week’s chart, with Thanksgiving last Thursday (Nov. 27) marking the semi-official start of the holiday season, and the beginning of seasonal playlist ubiquity on streaming and radio. Carey’s “Christmas” has dutifully ascended to the No. 1 position on the Apple Music real-time chart and the runner-up spot on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing, while also beginning its spread on the airwaves, trending towards the top 25 of next week’s Radio Songs chart after reentering at No. 40 this week.  

It all adds up to a convincing case for next week being the week that Carey captures the No. 1 spot for the seventh consecutive holiday season. If it does, it will dethrone Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia,” which has reigned for its first eight weeks on the chart — tying “Anti-Hero” for the longest-leading of Swift’s 13 No. 1s on the Hot 100 — and also technically mark the song’s earliest return to the top spot on the chart dated Dec. 13 (with last year’s return coming a day later in the calendar, on the Dec. 14-dated chart).  

“Christmas” will make additional chart history if and when it recaptures pole position. Its next week atop the chart will mark its 19th total, which will tie Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” for the longest-reigning No. 1 in Hot 100 history. And with several chart weeks left before we turn the calendar on “Christmas,” it seems a strong likelihood that this will be the year the song captures week No. 20 atop the chart, giving Carey the gift of sole possession of the longest-running No. 1 in Hot 100 history. 

Brenda Lee, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” (Decca/MCA Nashville/UMe): The lone other holiday song to capture the weekly crown since Mariah started her run of dominance, Brenda Lee’s fellow perennial should also be in the mix for No. 1 this holiday season. In fact, it’s ahead of Carey’s classic on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, where it’s reigned since Thanksgiving. On the Hot 100, it rises to the top 10 this week for the first time this season, landing at No. 7. 

Without a major narrative hook to “Rockin’” this year — especially compared to the chart history Carey is staring down — it might be hard for it to get past “All I Want” on the weekly chart. But “Rockin’” does usually amp up a little closer to the holidays, and it is up 47% in radio reach through the first four days of this tracking week (Nov. 28-Dec. 1), compared to the previous week, according to Luminate.  

Wham!, “Last Christmas” (Columbia/Legacy): The George Michael-penned Christmas classic edged out Bobby Helms’ “Jingle Bell Rock” for the bronze medal on last year’s Christmas-week Hot 100, helped by the song’s 40th-anniversary celebration (and vinyl re-release). It should be in contention for the No. 3 spot, its peak to date, again this year — and in fact currently ranks ahead of “Rockin’” on the Hot 100, where it sits at No. 6 as the second-highest-ranking holiday title.  

It might be tough for Wham! to get in the mix for the top two once the holidays approach, however, as “Rockin’” has passed on both the Spotify and Apple Music charts (as well as on iTunes), and “Rockin’” is also growing faster on radio (with “Last Christmas” up just 19% in airplay audience so far this tracking week). But in 2026, the song should be the holiday title to watch, as the 10th anniversary of George Michael’s death — which occurred, too fittingly, on Christmas night in 2016 — is commemorated.