Will ‘Last Christmas’ Ever Pass ‘All I Want for Christmas Is You’ for No. 1 on the Seasonal Hot 100?

Another year, another run at No. 1 or Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You.” The seasonal staple has topped the Billboard Hot 100 for at least one week around the holidays every year since 2019, and it resumes its run for 2025 atop this week’s chart (dated Dec. 13).

This latest week at No. 1 is a historic one for Carey, as it makes it 19 total for “All I Want” — tying the holiday classic with Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” for the longest-reigning No. 1 in Hot 100 history. And just below it, another holiday classic hits a new benchmark, as Wham!’s “Last Christmas” reaches the runner-up spot for the firs ttime.

Will “Last Christmas” eventually pass “All I Want” on the seasonal rankings? And what else are we finding notable among the Hot 100’s holiday titles this week? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” notches a record-tying 19th frame at No. 1 on the Hot 100 this week. On a scale from 1-10, how big an achievement is this for Carey?

Katie Atkinson: 10! The fact that she held this very record for more than two decades with her Boyz II Men collab “One Sweet Day,” lost it, and now is within one week of reclaiming it is an exceptional feat. She first set the record in 1996 alongside Boyz II Men, and almost 30 years later she’s getting it back? Seriously, who does that?! It’s an unprecedented chart achievement that I doubt could ever be re-created. Not to mention, Mariah could break the record next week, but then the weeks at No. 1 she could have in the holiday seasons to come are endless. The Hot 100’s No. 1 is officially Mariah’s personal chart penthouse, which she lets everyone else rent out the other 48 weeks of the year.

Kyle Denis: 8.5. It might be just as big as “Christmas” reaching No. 1 on the Hot 100 the first time around! Snatching back the all-time record from two absolute behemoths is no easy feat, but of course if anyone could pull it off, it’d be Mariah Carey.  

Jason Lipshutz: A 9. That will bump up to a 10 next week, if “All I Want for Christmas is You” ends the three-way tie with “Old Town Road” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” but for now, Carey notching a 19th week at No. 1 demonstrates just how enduring her holiday classic has become. Even when other holiday fare floods the top 10, or a song like Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” sneaks in for a week atop the Hot 100 in a different year, “All I Want for Christmas is You” remains the 800-pound gorilla of the season. The fact that it now shares a piece of Hot 100 history speaks to that dominance, which has no end in sight.

Andrew Unterberger: A 10. Next week might be an 11.

Denise Warner: 10, for sure. Mariah has 19 no. 1 hits on the Hot 100 – and multiple chart toppers that reigned for more than 10 weeks. But creating a song so iconic that its ascendency to the top becomes an inevitable holiday tradition? That’s incredible.

2. Wham!’s “Last Christmas” reaches a new peak of No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week — marking the fifth holiday season this decade in which the song has bettered its previous chart peak. What about the song has made it such a still-growing perennial over 40 years later?

Katie Atkinson: The thing that separates “Last Christmas” from pretty much every other holiday song is that it’s a perfect pop song that just happens to be Christmas-themed. I wouldn’t mind hearing this song on the radio in January or even July, really. George Michael crafted a great Wham! breakup song set at Christmastime that gets its much-deserved flowers poinsettias every December.

Kyle Denis: I think “Last Christmas” really benefits from the downcast gloom that hovers over most of Gen Z. If we’re not latching onto sexy Christmastime songs like Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” or Destiny’s Child’s “8 Days of Christmas,” we’re leaning into the songs that capture melancholy winter blues. Think Phoebe Bridgers’ intimate “If We Make It Through December” or Sabrina Carpenter’s “Santa Doesn’t Know You Like I Do.” 

Jason Lipshutz: I suspect that part of the reason why “Last Christmas” has grown in stature recently has to do with its singularity amidst the holiday perennials — there are no other Christmas smashes that function quite like it, its whimsical melancholy standing apart from the wholesome energy of “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and “Jingle Bell Rock,” as well as the new-school cheeriness of hits by Mariah Carey, Ariana Grande and Kelly Clarkson. Within a culture that now consumes lots of holiday music in playlist form, “Last Christmas” bounces nicely off of any other Christmas song around it, and as a result, Wham! keep climbing higher and higher each year.

Andrew Unterberger: We love an exquisitely sad holiday song, don’t we? Especially one with synths that twinkle like a perfect snowflake. The better question might be: Why isn’t The Pretenders’ similarly incandescent “2000 Miles” right behind it in the yearly rankings?

Denise Warner: I think “Last Christmas” really benefits from the downcast gloom that hovers over most of Gen Z. If we’re not latching onto sexy Christmastime songs like Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” or Destiny’s Child’s “8 Days of Christmas,” we’re leaning into the songs that capture melancholy winter blues. Think Phoebe Bridgers’ intimate rendition of “If We Make It Through December” or Sabrina Carpenter’s “Santa Doesn’t Know You Like I Do.” 
 
Outside of the song itself, Wham! also remains one of pop’s coolest duos, thanks, in large part, to George Michael’s legacy. Last year, the late pop icon’s “Father Figure” saw a streaming revival thanks to a key Babygirl sync, and Taylor Swift interpolated the song on her Life of a Showgirl track of the same name the following year. All roads lead back to Wham! 

3. Do you think “Last Christmas” will ultimately pass “All I Want” for the No. 1 spot one of these holiday seasons? If so, how long do you think it’ll likely take?

Katie Atkinson: It took until 2021 for “Last Christmas” to hit No. 1 in Wham!’s native U.K. (and then it’s bounced back to the top the last two years as well, à la Mariah), so I wouldn’t rule it out. But I think it would take something special – like a buzzy new music video or placement in a big TV show or film – to move the needle. Maybe there will be a big push for the song’s 50th anniversary in 2034, like when Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” ducked past Mariah during its 65th anniversary in 2023.

Kyle Denis: It definitely has the potential to! Realistically, a lot of stops have already been pulled for “All I Want.” Depending on how serious Andrew Ridgeley and Michael’s estate are about securing that No. 1 spot, they could probably reach the pole position by next holiday season with the right combination of promo moves. From remixes and music videos (performance, claymation, etc.) to live specials and performances, there are countless ways to life “Last Christmas” to the top of the Hot 100. 

Jason Lipshutz: Maybe there’s a concerted effort to finally get “Last Christmas” to No. 1 for a week this year or next, in the same way that Brenda Lee successfully went all-out to push “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” into the top spot in 2023. Otherwise, “All I Want for Christmas is You” remains the de facto holiday chart-topper. Wagering on another holiday song to supplant it as the go-to No. 1 during the holidays remains a foolish bet.

Andrew Unterberger: Next year will be the year! With the 10 year anniversary of George Michael’s death (which happened on Christmas Day, 2016) approaching, sentimentality over “Last Christmas” should be at an all-time high, while Mariah should already have the Hot 100 record well in hand. From there it might only take a small move or two to get Wham! over the top on the chart.

Denise Warner: It definitely has the potential to! Realistically, a lot of stops have already been pulled for “All I Want.” Depending on how serious Andrew Ridgeley and Michael’s estate are about securing that No. 1 spot, they could probably reach the pole position by next holiday season with the right combination of promo moves. From remixes and music videos (performance, claymation, etc.) to live specials and performances, there are countless ways to life “Last Christmas” to the top of the Hot 100. 

4. Are there any holiday songs lower on the Hot 100 you have your eye on to potentially reach new heights on the chart this holiday season?

Katie Atkinson: I love seeing my favorite holiday classic, Nat King Cole’s “The Christmas Song (Merry Christmas to You),” already hitting its previous peak of No. 9. Knowing that there are still three non-Christmas songs in the top 10 means that as early as next week, this 1961 recording could climb higher than ever before.

Kyle Denis: I imagine “Santa Tell Me” will match its No. 5 peak from last holiday season, but the combination of Christmas, awards season and Wicked: For Good might boost it even higher. Nat “King” Cole’s “The Christmas Song” has already matched its Hot 100 peak this season (No. 9), and Michael Bublé’s “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” is now within three spots of surpassing its all-time peak, so I’m keeping my eye on those two tracks as well. 

Jason Lipshutz: Jonas Brothers’ “Like It’s Christmas” re-enters at No. 35 this week, and while it has to compete with a lot more time-honored holiday songs, I could see it pushing higher in the coming years. Not only do the JoBros have a ton of goodwill as their reunion continues through stadium audiences, but “Like It’s Christmas” represents a solid distillation of their pop appeal. I’d bookmark that one to become a top 20 hit in the near future.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s literally called “The Christmas Song” — it should’ve been at least a top five Christmas-season hit by now. This may be the year.

Denise Warner: I imagine “Santa Tell Me” will match its No. 5 peak from last holiday season, but the combination of Christmas, awards season and Wicked: For Good might boost it even higher. Nat “King” Cole’s “The Christmas Song” has already matched its Hot 100 peak this season (No. 9), and Michael Bublé’s “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” is now within three spots of surpassing its all-time peak, so I’m keeping my eye on those two tracks as well. 

5. Is there any chance Mariah doesn’t break the all-time Hot 100 No. 1 record next week with “All I Want”?

Katie Atkinson: I suppose anything is possible — there are still three days left in the chart tracking week — but I’m expecting Mariah to take back her rightful crown by Monday.

Kyle Denis: I think we’d need a surprise launch of the official lead single for a new Adele or Rihanna album to keep Mariah from breaking the all-time Hot 100 No. 1 record next week. 

Jason Lipshutz: Nope. Lil Nas X and Shaboozey should enjoy the next few days — they will very likely be their last as the co-owners of the all-time Hot 100 longevity record.

Andrew Unterberger: Not really, no.

Denise Warner: This late in the tracking period? Barring an unexpected Wham! surge, I don’t see Mariah failing in this matter. (Although all I want for Christmas is an “Opalite” music video, which could potentially spoil future weeks for Carey. But not this one.)