Can Olivia Dean Extend the Streak of Women Winning the Best New Artist Grammy to 9 Years?

For months, it looked like the Grammy race for best new artist was likely to come down to Alex Warren and sombr. But a couple of things happened in the past few weeks to make the race more competitive – Olivia Dean exploded with a top 10 single on the Billboard Hot 100 (“Man I Need”) and a top 10 album on the Billboard 200 (The Art of Loving). And the Recording Academy ruled Leon Thomas eligible, even though he won a Grammy three years ago for co-writing SZA’s “Snooze.” Now, we have a real race.

With the nominations set to be announced next Friday (Nov. 7), all four of these artists certain to be nominated for best new artist, along with Lola Young. After that, it gets harder to choose, but the field will be rounded out with three other nominees, culled from a list of 337 eligible names.

Final-round voting begins Dec. 12 and extends to Jan. 5. So Dean has about six weeks for her profile to continue building before the first votes are cast.

If Dean (or Young) winds up winning, this will be the ninth year in a row that a solo woman has been named best new artist. The streak started in 2018 with Alessia Cara and has continued with Dua Lipa, Billie Eilish, Megan Thee Stallion, Olivia Rodrigo, Samara Joy, Victoria Monét and Chappell Roan.

If Warren, somber or Thomas takes the prize, they’d be the first male artist to win since Chance the Rapper in 2017.

The Marías, which span multiple genres and languages, also have a good chance of being nominated. If they were to win, they’d be the first group (defined as an act with three or more members) to take the prize since fun. in 2013. Three other groups are seen as having a reasonably good shot at a nod: Sleep Token, KATSEYE and The Red Clay Strays.

Some of the top contenders have already won new artist prizes at other shows. Warren won best new artist at the MTV Video Music Awards on Sept. 7. Thomas won best new artist at the BET Awards on June 9. Zach Top, Ella Langley and The Red Clay Strays won the new male, female, and duo/group prizes at the Academy of Country Music Awards on May 8. Myles Smith won the rising star award at the Brit Awards on March 1.

Even some acts that won new artist awards in 2024 are eligible. Megan Moroney won new artist of the year at the 2024 Country Music Association Awards and new female artist of the year at the 2024 Academy of Country Music Awards. The Red Clay Strays won emerging artist of the year at the 2024 Americana Music Honors & Awards.

(The Grammys in recent years have erred on the side of being inclusive in this category. In previous eras, they almost seemed to be looking for nitpicky reasons to kick artists out – just ask the people around Whitney Houston and Richard Marx who are probably still smarting over their exclusions.)

BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman, who collaborated on the top five Hot 100 hit “All the Way,” are competing against each other here. Sleep Token and Ken Carson, who both landed No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200, are eligible. So is Role Model, who made a vivid impression late in the eligibility year with his irresistible breakthrough hit “Sally, When the Wine Runs Out.”

Other strong contenders, not already mentioned, include Ravyn Lenae, Mariah the Scientist, Addison Rae, Jessie Murph, Gigi Perez, Riley Green, October London, Sam Fender, Reneé Rapp, PinkPantheress, Tucker Wetmore, ATEEZ, Central Cee, Lil Tecca, Parker McCollum and Keke Palmer.

The eligibility period for the 68th Grammy Awards is Aug. 31, 2024, through Aug. 30, 2025. While the Grammys set a minimum number of releases an artist must have to qualify in this category (five singles/tracks or one album), there is no maximum. Instead, the Grammys’ rules and guidelines booklet says nominations for the honor hinge on when “the artist had attained a breakthrough or prominence” — and it delegates that determination to a screening committee.

Artists are allowed to appear on the entry list for best new artist three times, after which they are ruled ineligible for future consideration.

Here are the eight leading nominees for best new artist. The artists are shown in alphabetical order, which is how they’ll be listed on the Grammy nominees list.