Kendrick Lamar had a big night at the 67th annual Grammy Awards in February, winning all five categories in which he was nominated, including record and song of the year for “Not Like Us.” Expect him to make another strong showing at the 68th Grammys on Feb. 1, 2026, where he could become the first male solo rapper to win album of the year.

First, though, there are the nominations, which are set to be announced Nov. 7. Ten years ago, when Lamar’s To Pimp a Butterfly was released, the rapper received a career-best 11 nods (just one shy of the record held jointly by Michael Jackson and Babyface). Lamar’s tally this year could be close to that.

Ahead of the end of the eligibility period on Aug. 30, here are the early top contenders in the four highest-profile categories — album, record and song of the year plus best new artist — which are commonly referred to as the Big Four.

Album of the Year

We’ll find out if Bad Bunny, Lorde and The Weeknd can return to the album of the year finals after missing out with their previous sets. We’ll also see if Kendrick Lamar can become the first solo artist in Grammy history to receive album of the year nods for five consecutive studio projects and if Morgan Wallen finally lands his first nod in a Big Four category.

Bad Bunny, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS

Three years ago, Un Verano Sin Ti became the first Spanish-language album to receive an album of the year nod. Bad Bunny’s 2023 follow-up wasn’t nominated in this category, but his latest may put him back on track and make him the only artist with two Spanish-language albums nominated in the top category. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (four weeks).

Justin Bieber, SWAG

This surprise drop on July 11 could bring Bieber his third nod in this category following Purpose (2017) and Justice (2022). The alternative R&B album features artists such as Gunna and Sexyy Red alongside Dijon and Eddie Benjamin. Grammy voters have long been Beliebers — four of his six previous studio albums were nominated for best pop vocal album.

Sabrina Carpenter, Man’s Best Friend (Aug. 29)

Carpenter was nominated in this category last year for Short n’ Sweet. She is vying to become just the third artist in the past decade — following H.E.R. and Taylor Swift — to be nominated in this category in back-to-back years. If she is, Carpenter will match the Carpenters (no relation), who had consecutive album of the year nods in 1971 and 1972.

Elton John & Brandi Carlile, Who Believes in Angels?

This would be John’s fourth nod in the category — his first since Captain Fantastic and the Brown Dirt Cowboy 50 years ago — and the third for Carlile. This would give John a 55-year span of album of the year nominations, a record topped only by Tony Bennett, whose nods spanned 59 years. Billboard 200 peak: No. 9 (one week).

Lady Gaga, MAYHEM

This would be Gaga’s fifth nomination in this category and her first for a contemporary pop album since Born This Way in 2012. Gaga has amassed 14 Grammys, but she has yet to win in a Big Four category. She and Bruno Mars memorably performed “California Dreamin’ ” to boost Los Angeles wildfire relief at the 2025 Grammys. In April, she headlined the first night of Coachella. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (one week).

Kendrick Lamar, GNX

Lamar could become the first rapper to receive five nominations in this category as a lead artist. He’s currently tied with Ye (formerly known as Kanye West), with four nods. In addition, he would become the first solo artist from any genre to be nominated for the award with five consecutive studio albums. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (three weeks).

Tyler, the Creator, Chromakopia

The rapper was nominated in this category 13 years ago as a featured artist on Frank Ocean’s debut studio album, Channel Orange. He has since won two Grammys as a lead artist for best rap album for Igor and Call Me If You Get Lost. Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (three weeks).

The Weeknd, Hurry Up Tomorrow

The superstar was nominated for album of the year 10 years ago with Beauty Behind the Madness, but was passed over with his next four studio projects. When he wasn’t nominated in any categories at the 2021 ceremony for his megahit “Blinding Lights,” he announced a Grammy boycott, but he made a surprise, bury-the-hatchet appearance at the 2025 Grammys, where he performed two songs. Will voters extend the rapprochement with a nod here? Billboard 200 peak: No. 1 (one week).

Within Reach: Bon Iver, SABLE, fABLE; Clipse, Let God Sort Em Out; Coldplay, Moon Music; HAIM, I Quit; Jelly Roll, Beautifully Broken; Lorde, Virgin; Tate McRae, So Close To What; Playboi Carti, MUSIC; Kali Uchis, Sincerely,; Morgan Wallen, I’m the Problem.

Record of the Year

Artists may receive two nominations in this category, provided at least one is with a co-nominee. Thus, Kendrick Lamar could get the nod for his solo smash “Squabble Up” and one of his hit duets with SZA, most likely “Luther.” However, the smart strategy is to enter your strongest single and not risk vote-splitting. Artists can enter different works for record and song of the year, as Sabrina Carpenter did last year, but it’s usually best to play your strongest card across the board.

Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True”

Abrams teamed with Aaron Dessner and Julian Bunetta to produce this single, which became her first top 10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100. Bunetta was nominated in this category last year for producing Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso.” This would be Abrams’ second nod in a Big Four category after her best new artist nomination two years ago. Hot 100 peak: No. 6.

Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild”

Carpenter, who was nominated for this award last year with “Espresso,” could return to the finals with this amusing lead single from Man’s Best Friend. She teamed with Jack Antonoff to produce the smash, which became her second No. 1 on the Hot 100. This would be Antonoff’s fourth nod in this category. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (one week).

Doechii, “Denial Is a River”

Doechii performed this song in February on the Grammy telecast, where she won best rap album and was nominated for best new artist. She has two eligible singles in this category. “Anxiety,” which samples Gotye’s 2013 record of the year winner, “Somebody That I Used To Know,” was a bigger hit, but “Denial Is a River” is a more original and distinctive work. Hot 100 peak: No. 21.

Billie Eilish, “Wildflower”

This would be Eilish’s sixth nod in this category in the past seven years. Her brother, FINNEAS, has produced or co-produced all of these records. Like 2024’s nominated “Birds of a Feather,” “Wildflower” has been a fixture on the Hot 100 for more than a year. The siblings are masters of slow-burning hits. Hot 100 peak: No. 17.

Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra”

This would be Gaga’s fourth nomination in this category following “Poker Face,” “Shallow” (with Bradley Cooper) and “I Get a Kick Out of You” (with Tony Bennett). Gaga produced the single with Cirkut (who was nominated in this category last year for co-producing Charli xcx’s “360”) and Andrew Watt (nominated four years ago for the Justin Bieber smash “Peaches”). Hot 100 peak: No. 13.

Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther”

Lamar and SZA are vying to become the first occasional duet partners to receive two nominations in this category. They were nominated seven years ago for “All the Stars.” This would be Lamar’s fifth nod for this prize, which would establish a new record for a hip-hop artist. It would be SZA’s fourth. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (13 weeks).

ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.”

This would be a history-making nomination: Blackpink’s ROSÉ would become the first K-pop artist to receive a Big Four nod. It doesn’t hurt that she is teamed with Mars, a six-time nominee in this category. He co-produced the single with Cirkut, Omer Fedi and Rogét Chahayed, all of whom are also past nominees in this category. Hot 100 peak: No. 3.

Alex Warren, “Ordinary”

This power ballad has been a global smash, topping the Official U.K. Singles Chart for 13 weeks and the Billboard Global 200 for 10. Its extra-“Ordinary” success may be capped off by a nomination in this category. Co-writer Adam Yaron also produced Warren’s single. Hot 100 peak: No. 1 (six weeks).

Within Reach: BigXthaPlug featuring Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way”; Miley Cyrus, “End of the World”; Drake, “Nokia”; Tate McRae, “Sports Car”; Ed Sheeran, “Azizam”; sombr, “Undressed”; Teddy Swims, “Bad Dreams”; Tyla, “Push 2 Start”; Morgan Wallen featuring Tate McRae, “What I Want”; The Weeknd and Playboi Carti, “Timeless.”

Song of the Year

In each of the last two years, five record of the year nominees were also nominated for this songwriter’s award. Our early projection is that six will double up in 2026. Songs that sample or interpolate previous hits, such as “Luther” (Luther Vandross & Cheryl Lynn’s “If This World Were Mine”), “APT.” (Toni Basil’s “Mickey”) and “Anxiety” (Gotye’s “Somebody That I Used To Know”), are eligible, but the writers of the sampled/interpolated songs are not.

“Denial Is A River”
Songwriters: Doechii, James Ian Anderson, Joey Hamhock

This loosely autobiographical song could potentially bring Doechii her first nomination in a songwriting category and her co-writers their first Grammy nods ever. The clever, sitcom-themed video (co-directed by Carlos Acosta and James Mackel) is also a strong contender for a best music video nod.

“The Giver”
Songwriters: Chappell Roan, Dan Nigro

Roan and Nigro were nominated in this category last year for co-writing “Good Luck, Babe!” Nigro was previously nominated here for co-writing Olivia Rodrigo’s “drivers license” and “vampire.” If this cheeky song is nominated, this would be the second year in a row that a non-country artist received a nod in this category for co-writing a country-flavored song. Beyoncé was nominated last year for “Texas Hold ’Em.”

“Luther”
Songwriters: Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Atia “INK” Boggs, Samuel Dew

This would be Lamar’s fifth nomination in this category — establishing a new record for a rapper — the fourth nod here for SZA and the second for Boggs, who was nominated last year for co-writing Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ’Em.” Luther Vandross, the song’s namesake, won this category in 2004 for co-writing “Dance With My Father.”

“Manchild”
Songwriters: Sabrina Carpenter, Amy Allen, Jack Antonoff

This songwriting trio was nominated in this category last year for co-writing “Please Please Please.” This would be Antonoff’s seventh nod in this category, which would put him behind only his frequent collaborator Taylor Swift, who has amassed eight nods. Allen is the reigning winner for songwriter of the year, non-classical.

“Ordinary”
Songwriters: Alex Warren, Adam Yaron, Cal Shapiro, Mags Duval

Stately power ballads have been perennial favorites in this ­category, with the winners’ list including such songs as Paul Simon’s “Bridge Over Troubled Water” (1971), Sam Smith’s “Stay With Me” (2015) and Adele’s “Hello” (2017). The lattermost smash is the most recent power ballad to win. It’s too early to know if “Ordinary” will take the prize, but a nomination seems likely.

“That’s So True”
Songwriters: Gracie Abrams, Audrey Hobert

This would be Abrams’ first nomination in a songwriting category and Hobert’s first nod ever. It would also be the first collaboration by two women to be nominated in this category since the expanded version of “All Too Well,” co-written by Taylor Swift and Liz Rose, was nominated two years ago.

“When This Old World Is Done With Me”
Songwriters: Brandi Carlile, Elton John, Bernie Taupin, Andrew Watt

This poignant ballad would be Carlile’s fifth nomination in this category, the third for John and the second for Watt (following “Die With a Smile” last year). Taupin has never been nominated for song of the year — meaning not one Elton & Bernie collaboration has been nominated in this category. If only to correct that oversight, a nod would be welcome.

“Wildflower”
Songwriters: Billie Eilish, FINNEAS

This would be the siblings’ sixth song of the year nomination in just seven years. No other songwriters have piled up so many nods so quickly. Lionel Richie scored his six nods in a comparatively leisurely eight years. Eilish and FINNEAS won for “bad guy” in 2020 and the Barbie smash “What Was I Made For?” in 2024.

Within Reach: “Abracadabra” (artist: Lady Gaga), “APT.” (Bruno Mars and ROSÉ), “Azizam” (Ed Sheeran), “Bad Dreams” (Teddy Swims), “Nokia” (Drake), “Push 2 Start” (Tyla), “Relationships” (HAIM), “Timeless” (The Weeknd and Playboi Carti), “Undressed” (sombr), “twilight zone” (Ariana Grande).

Best New Artist

The Marías were featured on Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti, an album of the year nominee in 2022. That would have previously made them ineligible here, but the Recording Academy tweaked its rules in June so that artists who are featured on less than 20% of the playing time of an album of the year nominee don’t lose their future best new artist eligibility. But Leon Thomas appears to be out of luck: He won a Grammy — an automatic disqualifier — two years ago for co-writing SZA’s “Snooze.”

Ella Langley

Langley’s hit duet with Riley Green, “you look like you love me,” arrived prior to the eligibility period, so it’s not in the running for record or song of the year nods. There’s usually more flexibility in this category, however. Langley, 26, was the top winner at the Academy of Country Music (ACM) Awards in May. Her five trophies included new female artist of the year.

The Marías

The four-member indie pop band from Los Angeles is best-known for the ballad “No One Noticed,” which was released in the previous eligibility year. The quartet, fronted by María Zardoya, is vying to become the first group with a woman lead singer to be nominated in this category since Wet Leg three years ago.

Mariah the Scientist

Mariah the Scientist, 27, wrote her breakthrough hit, the soulful ballad “Burning Blue,” which reached No. 25 on the Billboard Hot 100. The artist born Mariah Buckles could be the second Mariah to be nominated in this category: Mariah Carey won in 1991. “Burning Blue” co-producer Nineteen85 was nominated for producer of the year, non-classical in 2017.

Myles Smith

Smith, 27, may become the first male English artist to be nominated in this category since Fred again.. two years ago. He was up for best new artist at the BRIT Awards in March. Smith followed “Stargazing,” a top 20 hit on the Hot 100, with the spirited “Nice To Meet You,” which also charted.

sombr

Born Shane Michael Boose, sombr is the sole writer of his breakthrough hits “Undressed” and “Back to Friends.” The songs have a maturity and depth that belie sombr’s age — he turned 20 on July 5. He could potentially be the youngest nominee in this category in four years. The Kid LAROI and Olivia Rodrigo were both 18 when they were nominated in 2021. (Billie Eilish was just 17 when she was nominated in 2019 but had turned 18 by the time she won in 2020.)

Zach Top

Top, 27, has garnered much praise for his neotraditional country/bluegrass sound. He won new male artist of the year at the ACM Awards in May and was nominated for new artist of the year at 2024’s Country Music Association Awards. He may well be nominated in that category again at this year’s CMA Awards. (Artists have two shots in the new artist categories at country awards shows.)

Alex Warren

Warren, 24, followed breakout single “Ordinary” with “Bloodline” (with Jelly Roll). His first Hot 100 hit was “Burning Down” featuring Joe Jonas — who, as part of the Jonas Brothers, was nominated in this category in 2009. Warren’s first EP, You’ll Be Alright, Kid (Chapter 1), reached No. 13 on the Billboard 200. His debut full-length, also titled You’ll Be Alright, Kid, arrived July 18.

Lola Young

“Messy,” which Young co-wrote, reached No. 1 on the Official U.K. Singles Chart and No. 14 on the Hot 100. The song was released prior to this eligibility year. Young, 24, could become the second woman artist from England to be nominated in this category in as many years. RAYE was a finalist in 2024.

Within Reach: Addison Rae, BigXthaPlug, Reneé Rapp, Ravyn Lenae, Ken Carson, October London, Jessie Murph, Gigi Perez, Sleep Token, The Red Clay Strays.

This story appears in the July 19, 2025, issue of Billboard.