Water levels on Lake Ontario are a foot lower than 2023; IJC says little to no risk of flooding

Despite what has been a wet spring so far, the water levels on Lake Ontario have remained around average at 245.37 feet as of April 8, 2024. This number is around a foot lower than both 2023 and 2022.

The entire Great Lakes basin flows into Lake Ontario, and those water flows have been higher than average since December of 2023. That has been combated with high outflow rates through the Moses-Saunders Dam, following Plan 2014.

Inflow rates are currently at a manageable level and there is little to no snow pack in place to be concerned about snow melt. Downstream along the St. Lawrence, the water levels are all manageable, so there are no kinks in the system. This has led the International Joint Commission and the International Lake Ontario – St. Lawrence River board to forecast water levels remaining around or below average through spring and summer.

There is almost no path whatsoever that could lead to Lake Ontario flooding this summer. A more likely scenario (although still extremely unlikely overall) could be a long dry spell that leads to significantly lower levels along the shoreline.

WATER TEMPERATURES:

The surface water temperatures have been running hot since late last year across the lake. Rochester and most of the Great Lakes recorded one of the warmest winters on record and that led to very little ice cover. That’s kept water temperatures warm at the surface. Numbers are in the 40s, similar to the record year of 2012. Water temperatures that year peaked in the upper 70s by late July and early August.