How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
SYRACUSE (WSYR-TV)– Since 1887, a groundhog by the name of Phil has come out of his burrow on February 2 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania to forecast the tail end of winter.
The Folklore
Tradition has it that if the Groundhog sees his shadow on February 2, he will go back into his burrow and there will be six more weeks of winter. If it is cloudy and he sees no shadow, then it is believed that an early spring is around the corner. It is a tradition brought over to America by German immigrants.
Even though Punxsutawney Phil lives in Western Pennsylvania, is there any truth to his predictions and central New York’s end of winter weather?
How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil for Central New York?
Several years ago we looked at seasonal snowfall from February 1 and forward in Syracuse. We started with the winter of 1949-50 when snowfall began to be measured at Hancock Field. Here is what we found:
- When Phil sees his shadow (forecasts 6 more weeks of winter) Syracuse still averages 46 inches of snow the rest of winter, almost 4 more feet.
- If no shadow is seen and the forecast is for an early Spring then the average jumps up to 54 inches.
How did Phil do last year?
Last year, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow predicting six more weeks of winter. He was incorrect.
To be fair, he was on to something in February when the average monthly temperature was 0.4° below normal and the normal snowfall was 3.4″ below.
However, his prediction proved to be wrong when we had a very unseasonably mild March of 2021. The average temperature was 4.8° above normal. Six times that month the daily high temperature was 70° or higher. March 2021 was also 15.2″ below normal for snowfall.
Will Phil see his shadow Wednesday morning?
The forecast in Punxsutawney, PA is for a cloudy morning. So, there’s a good chance Phil will NOT see his shadow, meaning an earlier Spring. We shall see!
