Goldman Sachs Lowers Global Music Industry Growth Forecast, Wiping Out $2.5 Billion

Goldman Sachs lowered its global growth expectations for the music industry for the next five years, as well as its forecast for global recorded music revenues this year, in a report published Tuesday (June 3).

The Wall Street investment bank’s Music in the Air report, which has become a closely-watched guide for music industry executives and investors, said it expects the global music industry to generate $31.4 billion in net revenues in 2025, a $2.5 billion decline from its 2024 projection of $33.9 billion.

That reflects growth of 6.8% on average from 2025 to 2030, down from the 7.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) analysts had previously forecast for that period last year. The primary factors driving that downward revision, Goldman says, are the slowing growth of last year’s recorded music revenues and lower ad-funded streaming growth, both of which contributed to expectations of 7.9% streaming growth on average from 2024-2030, down from the 9.8% previously forecast.

“2024 was the first year since we began forecasting music industry trends where global music revenues fell short of our expectations,” the authors of the closely watched report wrote. “This was also the first year since we started forecasting music industry revenue where the recorded music market came well below our expectations.”

Goldman also issued new estimates for future growth, projecting that the music industry will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% for the years 2031 to 2035.

These slower growth forecasts echo findings of earlier reports this year, such as the IFPI’s March findings that global recorded music growth for 2024 was half of what it was in 2023, and the RIAA’s similar report that found that U.S. streaming revenue growth last year slowed to 3% from 7.7% in 2023.

Nonetheless, Goldman analysts said they expect the value of music rights and companies to remain “resilient” amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop, and that more frequent streaming subscription price increases and individualized service plans will provide support.

In 2025, Goldman says it expects global music industry revenue growth of 7.7%, down from its previous forecast of 8.3%, with growth in the live music sector and a slight improvement in recorded music revenue growth serving as the main drivers.

Goldman’s revision of its streaming growth outlook within recorded music revenues was due to significantly lower ad-funded streaming, researchers said. Ad-funded streaming growth is expected to slow to 5.7%, compared to its 2024 forecast of 11.3%.

Researchers said these “meaningful changes to our streaming assumptions” stem from a structural shift of more consumers preferring shortform as opposed to longform videos, less upside gained from emerging platforms and the impact of near-term uncertainty.

Those factors also caused Goldman to expect slightly lower subscriber and average revenue per user growth among streaming platforms.