Leon Thomas, Kehlani & Mariah the Scientist Set to Spar at 2026 Grammys in R&B Categories: Our Predictions

There are five categories devoted to R&B housed in the R&B, rap and spoken poetry field at the 68th annual Grammy Awards. Here, we preview the performance and songwriting categories: best R&B performance, best R&B song and best traditional R&B performance.

Best R&B Performance

As the eligibility period drew to a close on Aug. 30, three R&B songs emerged as near-definite locks for a best R&B performance nomination at next year’s ceremony: “Mutt” (Leon Thomas), “Burning Blue” (Mariah the Scientist) and “Folded” (Kehlani). All three tracks dominated R&B radio, reinvigorated the culture and achieved ample crossover success, reaching the Hot 100‘s top 25.

Because “Mutt” was eligible (and submitted for consideration) at last year’s ceremony, Thomas opted to vie for Grammy gold with a live version of the track sourced from his viral NPR Tiny Desk set. Not only is “Mutt” the biggest commercial success out of this crop of contenders (it hit No. 11 on the Hot 100 and recently entered the top 10 on Pop Airplay), but the song’s chances of a nod are also bolstered by Thomas’ overall momentum and goodwill from years of behind-the-boards work, as well as recent precedent.

At the 2025 ceremony, Muni Long won this category with a live version of “Made for Me.” With submissions across the R&B field, a best R&B song victory already under his belt (thanks to his work on SZA’s “Snooze”) and a deft campaign, expect a particularly splashy nominations announcement morning for Thomas. After years of percolating outside of R&B’s mainstream, Mariah the Scientist broke through in a major way with “Burning Blue” this year. The self-penned hit topped Rhythmic Airplay and gave way to the highest-charting album of Mariah’s career, August’s Hearts Sold Separately (No. 11 on the Billboard 200). A nomination here would be Mariah’s first in any Grammy category.

Kehlani’s “Folded” is also peaking at the perfect time, and its throwback ’00s feel has inspired unofficial remixes from past Grammy winners Brandy and Toni Braxton. Kehlani scored three nods at last year’s ceremony, bringing her to five career nominations with zero wins. Coco Jones, a seven-time Grammy nominee and previous winner here for “ICU” in 2024, will probably snag the fourth spot with “You,” a single from her Why Not More? LP.

Justin Bieber‘s “Yukon” leads the next tier of contenders. The breakout SWAG hit topped Rhythmic Airplay and boasts songwriting and production credits from buzzy alt-R&B craftsmen Dijon, Carter Lang, and Sir Dylan, but it still faces an uphill battle. Bieber’s “Peaches” scored R&B performance and song nods back in 2022, but that song featured two Grammy-nominated R&B stars (Daniel Caesar and Giveon) and topped the Hot 100. In comparison, “Yukon” only reached No. 17. Can Bieber pull off another nod in this category by himself?

Other second-tier contenders include SZA (“Another Life”), Summer Walker (“Heart of a Woman”), Chris Brown and Bryson Tiller (“It Depends”), and Giveon, who submitted both his own “Twenties” and his Teddy Swims duet, “Are You Even Real.” If R&B voters decide to ignore Bieber, look out for Chris and Tiller to snag that final spot off the strength of the Breezy Bowl XX tour, the song’s current upwards momentum and the glow of Brown’s best R&B album victory at last year’s ceremony. Of course, SZA could always be a namecheck nominee.

Who are some wild cards to keep an eye on? “Make a Baby,” a vocal masterclass of a duet between Grammy winners Tori Kelly and Lucky Daye, could surprise here, as could Alex Isley‘s “Hands” or Fridayy‘s “Back to You,” both of which made inroads on R&B radio this year. Daye is also contending alongside Teyana Taylor with “Hard Part,” a standout from her Escape Plan album, which could benefit from her One Battle After Another-induced Oscar buzz. Kenyon Dixon has scored a nomination for best traditional R&B performance in three of the past five years, and this year, he’s contending here with “Circle of Love,” alongside Terrace Martin and Robert Glasper.

Ravyn Lenae’s monster hit “Love Me Not” is competing in the pop field, but if R&B voters want to show her some love, they can throw their support behind “Love Is Blind” in this category. Additionally, Cleo Sol has only bolstered her cult following over the past year, and she could be rewarded with a nomination for “Fear When You Fly.” Other dark horses in this race include “Worst Behaviour” (kwn & Kehlani) and “Overqualified” (Durand Bernarr).

Our Fearless Forecast

Our predictions are: “Mutt (NPR Live)” (Leon Thomas), “Burning Blue” (Mariah the Scientist), “Folded” (Kehlani), “You” (Coco Jones) and “Circle of Love” (Terrace Martin, Kenyon Dixon & Robert Glasper).

Best R&B Song

The nominees for best R&B performance and song often overlap, but rarely do they align exactly. “Burning Blue” and “Folded” will likely reap bids in this category, and Thomas is also likely to pick up a nomination. Instead of “Mutt (NPR Live),” the Billboard cover star is contending with “Yes It Is,” which hit No. 43 on Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs. If Kehlani, Thomas and The Scientist are locks, who do the last two slots go to?

The past four winners in this category have been R&B songs that earned undeniable crossover success; Silk Sonic’s “Leave the Door Open,” Beyoncé’s “Cuff It” and SZA’s “Snooze” and “Saturn” all reached the top 10 of the Hot 100. With that in mind, Breezy and Tiller’s “It Depends” is probably a safe bet for a nod here. Both men have been previously nominated in this category, and “It Depends” rode a viral dance trend to the Hot 100’s top 30. Bieber’s “Yukon” also has a strong shot here, which allows R&B voters to honor not just the Canadian pop star, but also the new-age R&B savants that helped craft the song.

Beyoncé is this category’s biggest winner, with five wins, and she’s a credited songwriter on Taylor and Daye’s “Hard Part,” thanks to an interpolation of Jay-Z’s “Family Feud.” In Grammy Land, it’s never a bad thing to have The Carters attached to your submission. SZA (“Chill Baby”) and Coco Jones (“On Sight”) get lots of love from R&B voters, but their submissions this year aren’t nearly as strong as some of their past ones, so it wouldn’t be too much of a shocker if either (or both) of them missed a nod here. Giveon could also show up with either “Twenties” or Swims’ “Are You Even Real,” but likely not both.

At least one traditional-skewing R&B song makes it into this category each year, and this time around, that spot could go to “Make a Baby” (Kelly & Daye), “Where You Gonna Go” (Eric Roberson & BJ the Chicago Kid) or “Circle of Love” (Terrace Martin, Kenyon Dixon & Robert Glasper).

Additional songs to keep an eye on here include “Heart of a Woman” (Summer Walker), “Stare At Me” (Jane Handcock & Anderson .Paak), “Blame U” (Odeal), “Lucid Girl” (Thee Sacred Souls), “Out of My Hands” (SiR & Maeta), “Love Is Blind” (Ravyn Lenae), “Yamaha” (Dijon), and “Baptized In Fear” (The Weeknd).

Our Fearless Forecast

Our predictions are: “Yes It Is” (Leon Thomas), “Burning Blue” (Mariah the Scientist), “Folded” (Kehlani), “Yukon” (Justin Bieber) and “It Depends” (Chris Brown & Bryson Tiller).

Best Traditional R&B Performance

Aiming to honor “recordings that embody the classical elements of R&B/soul music, distinguishing them from contemporary interpretations of the genre,” the best traditional R&B performance Grammy doesn’t always go to the most commercially successful song.

Lalah Hathaway, who’s tied with Beyoncé as this category’s biggest winner (with three wins each) and with Anthony Hamilton as the category’s most-nominated artist (with five nods each), is a leading contender this year with her Ariza-assisted “Uptown.” The song appears on an expanded edition of her Vantablack LP, which earned two nominations at last year’s ceremony. Ledisi, another previous victor in this category, appears on the ballot with “Love You Too,” which reached No. 14 on Adult R&B Airplay earlier this year. Between her soaring rendition of “Lift Every Voice and Sing” at the 2025 Super Bowl, her standout performance of “BLKWMN” at this year’s BET Awards, and the recent buzz from her new Dinah Washington tribute album, Ledisi is practically a shoo-in here.

Coco Jones and Alicia Keys have both earned a nomination here in the past, and their “Other Side of Love” duet should have little trouble making it to the final five. BJ the Chicago Kid is a three-time nominee here, so his Eric Roberson duet, “Where You Gonna Go,” is a solid bet, as is Jon Batiste‘s Andra Day-assisted “Lean on My Love.” Eric Benét delivered a strong album cycle with The Co-Star and his India.Arie duet, “Must Be Love,” reached No. 13 on Adult R&B Airplay. Keep an eye out for that one too.

And then there’s the Leon Thomas question. He’s contending here with “Vibes Don’t Lie,” a fan-favorite Mutt deep cut that may have missed some voters’ radars. In past years, artists have been nominated (and even won) here when their albums dominate the overall conversation. In 2023, Beyoncé’s Renaissance earned nine nominations and won four, including best traditional R&B performance for “Plastic Off the Sofa.” The following year, SZA’s SOS also snagged nine nods, including a citation in this category for “Love Language.” If R&B voters go all in on Thomas this year, expect “Vibes Don’t Lie” to appear in the final lineup.

Additional potential nominees include “Crybaby” (SZA), “Here We Are” (Durand Bernarr), “Lucid Girl” (Thee Sacred Souls), “Let’s Stay Together” (Ann Nesby & Calvin Richardson) and “When a Man Cries” (Leon Bridges).

Our Fearless Forecast

Our predictions are: “Love You Too” (Ledisi), “Other Side of Love” (Coco Jones & Alicia Keys), “Lean On My Love” (Jon Batiste & Andra Day), “Crybaby” (SZA) and “Vibes Don’t Lie” (Leon Thomas).