What’s Next for Music in a Post-‘Kimmel’ World? 

The new, new media business was ushered in with a phrase that sounds less like that of a dictator than an exasperated parent. “We can do this the easy way or the hard way,” Federal Communications Commission chair Brendan Carr said on a podcast on Wednesday (Sept. 17) about the future of Jimmy Kimmel Live! Soon, Nexstar, the largest U.S. owner of TV stations, announced that it would preempt Kimmel’s show — followed by ABC itself. 

The practical lesson here is not only that the Trump administration is trying to exert more control over the media, it’s that it has more tools to do so than most people realize. The government didn’t forbid Kimmel from saying certain things — it just showed how much it could cost ABC, a division of Disney, for him to continue saying them. Disney is powerful because it’s big, but that also means it presents plenty of surfaces to attack. 

So do music companies.  

Start with the obvious — FCC authority over telecasts like the Grammy Awards or the Super Bowl. The FCC also regulates radio, which is why Eminem rapped that the agency won’t let him be. The federal government has authority over intellectual property, and Trump already fired the Register of Copyrights just after she released a report that angered Silicon Valley, although his reasoning is unclear. Some state and local governments also have some authority over sports and dedicated concert venues that are on public land or built with public funding. 

None of this gives the government the power to decide what music gets released, of course. But it also doesn’t have the power to take Kimmel off the air. The truth is that Soviet-style censorship is outmoded anyway — all of those middle-of-the-night disappearances create so much drama. Trump seems far more interested in shaping the media the way Prime Minister Viktor Orbán does in Hungary — by rewarding friendly companies and encouraging allied oligarchs to buy the rest. Before long, dissent becomes like jazz — intellectually important but extremely unpopular. 

So far, the music industry has treated Trump with a weird mix of artist and executive disdain and official silence. Sure, Trump’s policies have caused issues for some artists and smaller businesses — most significantly in the form of visa problems — but business keeps streaming along. Does that mean it will continue to do so, though?  

Imagine if Trump decided that he hated a particular artist — hardly a reach. If the artist had obscene lyrics, the FCC could caution radio stations about playing his songs, and right-wing websites could call for boycotts. Then the label would have to decide whether to stand behind the artist, which most executives would presumably want to do, and which would normally be in their interest as well. Until pressure was put on the parent company — maybe about something related to music policy (AI?) or an acquisition? Then the label would have to decide whether standing behind the artist is worth the cost. At first, of course! But that could get harder as the cost gets higher, given that companies have an obligation to act in the best interests of shareholders. 

In the case of Kimmel, Disney didn’t blink first. Nexstar said it would preempt the show on its 28 ABC affiliates. (Nexstar has said its decision had nothing to do with Carr’s comments, but it is now seeking FCC approval for a $6.2 billion acquisition.) Soon after, ABC said the show would be “preempted indefinitely.” 

A music business version of this isn’t so hard to imagine. Let’s say streaming services keep this imaginary artist’s music online but remove his songs from their playlists, so they’re just that much harder to find. There are only four big streaming companies, and three of them — Alphabet, Amazon and Apple — are U.S. technology companies that are regulated in all sorts of ways. Obviously, artists can have careers without those companies or the three major label conglomerates. But it is hard to imagine them making much noise in the mainstream.  

It’s hard to know what will happen in the next few months, but it seems safe to predict that at least one major musician will seriously piss off President Trump — Jack White is off to a good start. The issue could easily hang over the Grammy telecast, putting the show’s producers in an awkward position of standing up for artists in a way that could make things harder for their TV partner. Other artists could have to choose sides in a way that would make it hard for labels to stay silent.  

Then again, some costs are worth paying: Why not have Kimmel host the show?