From summer to bummer: Syracuse’s big weather changes


As the first week October rolls on with a stretch of summery weather, change is lurking in pattern and unfortunately it takes hold this weekend. We have been talking about this unfolding both on air and here on for almost a week now. In the meantime, some record highs could be in jeopardy this week as it remains dry. Click here for all the details on this upcoming warmth.

What happens after this week’s warmth?

But it is early October, so we know the summery weather won’t last. When does the pattern change and what does that change look like for us? First, let’s take a step back.

Our warmth is caused by a ridge of high pressure here in the East that forces jet stream winds aloft well north into Canada.

This breaks down starting this Friday into the first full weekend of October. By late in the weekend and early the following week a full-blown trough of low pressure is in place here in the Northeast.

The 6 to 10 day forecast, which now goes into mid-October, shows the impact of the change in the jet stream. That change leads to below normal temperatures for us.  There should be two or three days where highs are only in the 50s. We are thinking Sunday through Tuesday are the mostly likely days for this chill.

Is there lake effect as we cool?

There is going to be some rain with this change to cooler weather. We all get some steady rain Saturday as a cold front clears central New York. The air coming in behind the front over Lake Ontario is plenty cold enough for lake effect rain showers from Sunday into Tuesday of next week. The confidence is high for this to happen but who sees the bulk of the wet weather depends on the wind direction and the confidence in that this far out in time is lower.

Could there be any snow in higher elevations? While that has happened in past Octobers after a dramatic change in temperature, this time around it looks like temperatures aloft may be too warm for snow to fall.

The chill of the early Columbus Day week should be gone in a few days. It is probably safe to say, though, the mid-October moderation in temperatures does not come with 80-degree warmth.

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